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Section: Choose Top of page << 1.Introduction 2.Aim 3.Methods 4.Results 5.Discussion 6.Conclusions References Changes in vegetation are known to have an impact on climate via biogeophysical effects such as changes in albedo and he...
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Section: Choose Top of page << 1.Introduction 2.Aim 3.Methods 4.Results 5.Discussion 6.Conclusions References Changes in vegetation are known to have an impact on climate via biogeophysical effects such as changes in albedo and heat fluxes. Here, the effects of maximum afforestation and deforestation are studied over Europe. This is done by comparing three regional climate model simulations—one with present-day vegetation, one with maximum afforestation, and one with maximum deforestation. In general, afforestation leads to more evapotranspiration (ET), which leads to decreased near-surface temperature, whereas deforestation leads to less ET, which leads to increased temperature. There are exceptions, mainly in regions with little water available for ET. In such regions, changes in albedo are relatively more important for temperature. The simulated biogeophysical effect on seasonal mean temperature varies between 0.5° and 3°C across Europe. The effect on minimum and maximum temperature is larger than that on mean temperature. Increased (decreased) mean temperature is associated with an even larger increase (decrease) in maximum summer (minimum winter) temperature. The effect on precipitation is found to be small. Two additional simulations in which vegetation is changed in only one-half of the domain were also performed. These simulations show that the climatic effects from changed vegetation in Europe are local. The results imply that vegetation changes have had, and will have, a significant impact on local climate in Europe; the climatic response is comparable to climate change under RCP2.6. Therefore, effects from vegetation change should be taken into account when simulating past, present, and future climate for this region. The results also imply that vegetation changes could be used to mitigate local climate change.
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摘要 :
We present a coupled global climate model (CGCM) simulation, integrated for 1500 yr to quasiequilibrium, of a stadial (cold period) within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3). The simulated Greenland stadial 12 (GS12; ~44ka BP) annual ...
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We present a coupled global climate model (CGCM) simulation, integrated for 1500 yr to quasiequilibrium, of a stadial (cold period) within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3). The simulated Greenland stadial 12 (GS12; ~44ka BP) annual global mean surface temperature (T_s) is 5.5 ℃ lower than in the simulated recent past (RP) climate and 1.3℃ higher than in the simulated Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka BP) climate. The simulated GS12 is evaluated against proxy data and previous modelling studies of MIS3 stadial climate. We show that the simulated MIS 3 climate, and hence conclusions drawn regarding the dynamics of this climate, is highly model-dependent. The main findings are: (i) Proxy sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are higher than simulated SSTs in the central North Atlantic, in contrast to earlier simulations of MIS 3 stadial climate in which proxy SSTs were found to be lower than simulated SST. (ii) The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slows down by 50 % in the GS12 climate as compared to the RP climate. This slowdown is attained without freshwater forcing in the North Atlantic region, a method used in other studies to force an AMOC shutdown, (iii) El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections in mean sea level pressure (MSLP) are significantly modified by GS12 and LGM forcing and boundary conditions, (iv) Both the mean state and variability of the simulated GS12 is dependent on the equilibration. The annual global mean T_s only changes by 0.10 ℃ from model years 500-599 to the last century of the simulation, indicating that the climate system may be close to equilibrium already after 500 yr of integration. However, significant regional differences between the last century of the simulation and model years 500-599 exist. Further, the difference between simulated and proxy SST is reduced from model years 500-599 to the last century of the simulation. The results of the ENSO variability analysis is also shown to depend on the equilibration.
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This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, ～ 6 and ～ 0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply We apply the Rossby Centre regional climate mo...
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This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, ～ 6 and ～ 0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply We apply the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3, a regional climate model with 50 km spatial resolution, for both time periods, considering three alternative descriptions of the past vegetation: (ⅰ) potential natural vegetation (Ⅴ) simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, (ⅱ) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use (deforestation) from the HYDE3.1 (History Database of the Global Environment) scenario (Ⅴ+ H3.1), and (ⅲ) potential vegetation with anthropogenic land use from the KK10 scenario (Ⅴ + KK10). The climate model results show that the simulated effects of deforestation depend on both local/regional climate and vegetation characteristics. At ～ 6 k BP the extent of simulated deforestation in Europe is generally small, but there are areas where deforestation is large enough to produce significant differences in summer temperatures of 0.5-1 ℃. At ～0.2kBP, extensive deforestation, particularly according to the KK10 model, leads to significant temperature differences in large parts of Europe in both winter and summer. In winter, deforestation leads to lower temperatures because of the differences in albedo between forested and unforested areas, particularly in the snow-covered regions. In summer, deforestation leads to higher temperatures in central and eastern Europe because evapotranspiration from unforested areas is lower than from forests. Summer evaporation is already limited in the southernmost parts of Europe under potential vegetation conditions and, therefore, cannot become much lower. Accordingly, the albedo effect dominates in southern Europe also in summer, which implies that deforestation causes a decrease in temperatures. Differences in summer temperature due to deforestation range from -1 ℃ in south-western Europe to +1 ℃ in eastern Europe. The choice of anthropogenic land-cover scenario has a significant influence on the simulated climate, but uncertainties in palaeoclimate proxy data for the two time periods do not allow for a definitive discrimination among climate model results.
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Variability and long-term climate change in the Baltic Sea region is investigated for the pre-industrial period of the last millennium. For the first time dynamical down-scaling covering the complete millennium is conducted with a...
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Variability and long-term climate change in the Baltic Sea region is investigated for the pre-industrial period of the last millennium. For the first time dynamical down-scaling covering the complete millennium is conducted with a regional climate model in this area. As a result of changing external forcing conditions, the model simulation shows warm conditions in the first centuries followed by a gradual cooling until ca. 1700 before temperature increases in the last centuries. This long-term evolution, with a Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and a Little Ice Age (LIA), is in broad agreement with proxy-based reconstructions. However, the timing of warm and cold events is not captured at all times. We show that the regional response to the global climate anomalies is to a strong degree modified by the large-scale circulation in the model. In particular, we find that a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) simulated during MCA contributes to enhancing winter temperatures and precipitation in the region while a negative NAO index in the LIA reduces them. In a second step, the regional ocean model (RCO-SCOBI) is used to investigate the impact of atmospheric changes onto the Baltic Sea for two 100 yr time slices representing the MCA and the LIA. Besides the warming of the Baltic Sea, the water becomes fresher at all levels during the MCA. This is induced by increased runoff and stronger westerly winds. Moreover, the oxygen concentrations in the deep layers are slightly reduced during the MCA. Additional sensitivity studies are conducted to investigate the impact of even higher temperatures and increased nutrient loads. The presented experiments suggest that changing nutrient loads may be more important determining oxygen depletion than changes in temperature or dynamic feedbacks.
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摘要 :
We present a coupled global climate model (CGCM) simulation, integrated for 1500 years to quasi-equilibrium, of a stadial (cold period) within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3). The simulated Greenland stadial 12 (GS12; ~44 ka BP) an...
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We present a coupled global climate model (CGCM) simulation, integrated for 1500 years to quasi-equilibrium, of a stadial (cold period) within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3). The simulated Greenland stadial 12 (GS12; ~44 ka BP) annual global mean surface temperature (Ts) is 5.5 °C higher than in the simulated recent past (RP) climate and 1.3 °C lower than in the simulated Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka BP) climate. The simulated GS12 climate is evaluated against proxy data of sea surface temperature (SST). Simulated SSTs fall within the uncertainty range of the proxy SSTs for 30–50% of the sites depending on season. Proxy SSTs are higher than simulated SSTs in the Central North Atlantic, in contrast to earlier simulations of MIS 3 stadial climate in which proxy SSTs were found to be lower than simulated SST. The annual global mean Ts only changes by 0.10 °C from model years 500–599 to the last century of the simulation, indicating that the climate system may be close to equilibrium already after 500 years of integration. However, significant regional differences between the last century of the simulation and model years 500–599, with a maximum of 8 °C in temperature and 65% in precipitation in Southeastern Greenland in boreal winter, exist. Further, the agreement between simulated and proxy SST is improved from model years 500–599 to the last century of the simulation. El-Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections in mean sea level pressure (MSLP) are analysed for the last 300 years of the GS12, LGM and RP climate simulations. In agreement with an earlier study, we find that GS12 and LGM forcing and boundary conditions induce major modifications to ENSO teleconnections. However, significant differences in the teleconnection patterns are found between a 300-year time-slice starting after 195 model years and the last 300 years of the simulation. Thus we conclude that both the mean state and the variability of the simulated GS12 climate is dependent on the equilibration. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slows down by 50% in the GS12 climate as compared to the RP climate. This slowdown is attained without freshwater forcing in the North Atlantic region, a method used in other studies to force an AMOC shutdown. The results presented here suggest that stadial climate, rather that interstadial climate, should be interpreted as a near-equilibrium MIS 3 climate, in contradiction to an earlier modelling study.
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The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to review the pros and cons of the scenarios of past anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) developed during the last ten years, (2) to discuss issues related to pollen-based reconstruct...
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The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to review the pros and cons of the scenarios of past anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) developed during the last ten years, (2) to discuss issues related to pollen-based reconstruction of the past land-cover and introduce a new method, REVEALS (Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites), to infer long-term records of past land-cover from pollen data, (3) to present a new project (LANDCLIM: LAND cover – CLIMate interactions in NW Europe during the Holocene) currently underway, and show preliminary results of REVEALS reconstructions of the regional land-cover in the Czech Republic for five selected time windows of the Holocene, and (4) to discuss the implications and future directions in climate and vegetation/land-cover modeling, and in the assessment of the effects of human-induced changes in land-cover on the regional climate through altered feedbacks. The existing ALCC scenarios show large discrepancies between them, and few cover time periods older than AD 800. When these scenarios are used to assess the impact of human land-use on climate, contrasting results are obtained. It emphasizes the need of REVEALS model-based land-cover reconstructions. They might help to fine-tune descriptions of past land-cover and lead to a better understanding of how long-term changes in ALCC might have influenced climate. The REVEALS model is proved to provide better estimates of the regional vegetation/land-cover changes than the traditional use of pollen percentages. Thus, the application of REVEALS opens up the possibility of achieving a more robust assessment of land cover at regional- to continental-spatial scale throughout the Holocene. We present maps of REVEALS estimates for the percentage cover of 10 plant functional types (PFTs) at 200 BP and 6000 BP, and of the two open-land PFTs "grassland" and "agricultural land" at five time-windows from 6000 BP to recent time. The LANDCLIM results are expected to provide crucial data to reassess ALCC estimates for a better understanding of the land suface-atmosphere interactions.
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